杂志汇中国与非洲

After China comfortably ex­ceeded its 2017 target to grow at 6.9 percent, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced that the 2018 GDP growth target was set at around 6.5 percent. This slight drop from last year’s actual growth is consistent with the regularly cited gradual cooling of the Chinese economy. It is likely that consumer spending will play a central role in the attainment of this target, with consumption expected to account for 60 percent of the growth this year, up from 58.8 percent in 2017. The government’s confidence in the economy is further evident in its goal to reduce budget deficit from 3 percent in 2017 to 2.6 percent, the first time it aims to do so in five years. This is likely to be achieved through a reduction in government spending.

Trade Strong as Uncertainty Looms

China’s trade figures are still registering stable growth, with both exports and imports continuing to increase, especially the latter. However, whilst positive momentum characterized the economy as a whole at the beginning of the year, the outlook for trade is relatively uncertain. This uncertainty comes from what appears to be slowing global demand, a stronger Chinese currency, as well as increased trade protectionism in the United States.

Key Economic Indicators

Surpassing economists’ forecasts of a 2.5-percent rise, China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9 percent in February. This is a substantial increase compared to January’s 1.5-percent CPI gain. When delivering the Government Work Report in March, Premier Li announced an overall inflation target for China of 3 percent for 2018. Easing from the previous month, the producer price index rose 3.7 percent in February, as compared to 4.3 percent in January. This represents a 15-month low for the index.

The Year of the Emerging Economy

The positive outlook embodied by the 6.5-percent GDP growth target China set for itself this year bodes well for the rising prosperity of developing and emerging economies. Among the milestones that 2018 brings with it are the 10th annual BRICS summit in June, the Forum on China-Africa C ooperation Summit, now in its 18th year, and the 20th anniversary of China-South Africa relations. China’s economic strength will be an important pillar on which the continued maturity of these various fora rests.

The ChinAfrica Econometer is produced by The Beijing Axis, an international advisory and procurement firm operating in four principal areas: Procurement, Sales Activation, Capital, and Strategy. For more information, please contact: Kobus van der Wath, [email protected], www.thebeijingaxis.com