杂志汇中国与非洲

Qi KaiThe African Union (AU) has been widely regarded as an important regional organization to advance economic and social prosperity in Africa. Now, the organization and African countries face a changed world scenario from two aspects. First, the 28th AU Summit held earlier this year accepted the return of Morocco 33 years after the North African country withdrew in 1984. Second, the AU along with other regional organizations face the danger of impending protectionism. Qi Kai, a research fellow with Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, examines the 29th AU Summit taking place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia this month and what challenges will the AU confront in the future. The following is an edited excerpt of his thoughts.

In an increasingly complicated international community, the AU should be held accountable to the whole continent and play a greater role in advancing regional integration so that Africa can have a louder voice in the international arena.

Qi Kai, a research fellow with Beijing Academy of Social Sciences

African nations established the Organization of African Unity, the predecessor of the AU, in 1963, ushering in a new era of exploring continental economic integration after gaining independence. The efforts were driven by Pan-Africanism that advocates unity and solidarity among all Africans. According to Pan-Africanists, integration is the ultimate vision as well as the guarantee to fulfill prosperity.

In the 1960s, African countries have been actively promoting the establishment of regional organizations on economic cooperation. Such endeavors include agreement on a customs union, single monetary zone and unified policy to promote agricultural products like coffee and peanuts. But the process of integration was very slow.

In the 1990s, efforts to advance integration began to step up. In 1991, the treaty establishing the African Economic Community, commonly known as the Abuja Treaty, was signed, rolling out a roadmap for continental economic integration. It also meant leapfrogging progress in achieving free trade and coordinated policy across borders. In 2015, the AU adopted the 2063 Agenda as a long-term action plan to realize the vision of transforming Africa into an integrated, prosperous and peaceful continent within 50 years.

Challenges ahead

Currently, intensifying turmoil in some regions is damaging economies in African countries, jeopardizing the process of integration. The AU must effectively deal with the following challenges.

First, terrorism from the Middle East is penetrating the continent. Typically, the so-called Islamic State is a result of religious extremism. Against such a backdrop, terrorism is infiltrating Africa, especially North Africa and East Africa that are geographically adjacent to the Middle East. The Nigerian extremist group Boko Haram and Somalia’s militant faction al-Shabaab have posed acute threats to political stability and security and disrupted African economies.

Second, some African countries are overly dependent on energy exports and troubled by stagnant economies and grave financial pressure in a depressed international energy market. Oil exports used to bring tremendous revenues to Angola, Nigeria and Libya. However, the international crude oil price plummeted from the second half of 2014, shocking the entire world with Africa being no exception. The fall in price was proven to be no accident, but a continual process with no signs of recovery to date.

Third, as the world economy slows down and protectionism rises, some developed countries will cut aid to Africa. The global economy now faces multiple challenges. The developed nations remain challenged with sluggish recovery, while the growth rates of emerging economies are slowing down, resulting in chronically weak energy consumption. The trade protectionism is undermining efforts of some international and regional free trade agreements. The free trade mechanisms of the World Trade Organization, the EU and the NAFTA have been under threats and negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement are deadlocked. Since Donald Trump became the President of the United States, some extreme conservatives are influencing global trade. Brexit escalated the dispute on whether to abolish the free trade agreement between Britain and the EU and there remains a chance that tariff wars, trade wars and monetary wars could break out among world major economies. Given these factors, developed nations would be preoccupied with their own interests and slash aid budgets, shirk their responsibility to Africa and turn a blind eye on problems facing Africa.

Future roles

Compared with other existing regional organizations for economic integration, the AU has many merits. For one thing, it covers the entire continent, representing a strong desire to consolidate solidarity among African nations. For another, it is a comprehensive regional organization whose political agenda will accelerate economic cooperation. In an increasingly complicated international community, the AU should be held accountable to the whole continent and play a greater role in advancing regional integration so that Africa can have a louder voice in the international arena.

As an organization promoting regional integration, it is important for the AU to firmly carry on the principles of free trade and fight back protectionism. It is a big family with 55 members including regional powers like Egypt, emerging economies like South Africa as well as resource-rich nations like Nigeria. If they can join hands and speak with one voice in the international community, they will exert significant influence on world affairs. Globalization and free trade are still beneficial to every country. African countries and the AU should contain the attacks against previous achievements of globalization and international trade mechanisms. Otherwise, the regional integration will be severely impaired.

Meanwhile, it is good for the AU to strengthen support in education to tap the great potential of young people. Africa enjoys a demographic dividend as it has a large population of young people aged from 15 to 24. The figure stands at 200 million. But the disadvantage is that such a vast population is not well-educated and lacks skills. In this sense, the AU can actively create a favorable environment and improve support for better elementary education and vocational training.

In response to escalating terrorism threats, the AU can promote the establishment of a unified anti-terrorism mechanism among members so as to share intelligence and coordinate actions. In this way, they could contain expansion of religious extremism in Africa with joint efforts.

More importantly, the Belt and Road Initiative is important for the AU to achieve economic integration. As the promoter of the initiative, China will work with African countries for a shared goal of realizing prosperity. It sincerely supports Africa to achieve the vision of building an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa. What’s more, the economies of China and Africa are highly complementary. African countries can utilize China’s capital, technologies and experience to better develop their own economies. In this regard, the AU can spearhead the cooperation with China and encourage its members to actively participate in the initiative.

The 28th AU Summit concludes in Addis Ababa on January 31. Morocco returned to the AU LI BAISHUN