杂志汇中国与非洲

By Aggrey Mutambo

The August announcement by the UN Security Council authorizing an additional intervention force of 4,000 troops to South Sudan has given some hope to the war-torn country. The mandate of this force to protect civilians and help bolster the tenuous peace process, despite practical deployment challenges, will be tested in the months ahead.

When rebel leader Riek Machar accepted the invitation to Juba in April and formed the brokered Transitional Government of National Unity with President Salva Kiir, it looked like a second liberation and the start of a long road to stability for South Sudan.

It proved to be a false dawn, however, as violence erupted again in the embattled nation beginning on July 8, with troops loyal to Kiir fighting those of Machar. Events moved with lightning speed as the violence escalated, killing close to 300 people. Fears of a civil war loomed again, and Machar fled Juba.

South Sudan’s civil war dates back to December 2013 after Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup, but according to the recent UN reports of killing and raping of civilians by government troops, the country’s fragile situation has plunged to an all-time low. South Sudan has rejected the UN accusations.

Vicious cycle

From the outside, the conflict looks like a vicious internal cycle, as both sides accuse each other of violating the Compromise Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan signed in August 2015, which demands a total ceasefire.

But the ongoing violence is being felt beyond South Sudanese borders.

The UN Refugee Agency reported in August that since the latest round of fighting, the number of refugees who fled from South Sudan into neighboring countries totaled 60,000, bringing the overall number of refugees in the region since December 2013 to nearly 900,000.

China is also affected by the conflict, having recently lost two of its peacekeepers in the country when their base was attacked in July. China maintains a presence in the UN peacekeeping force in South Sudan.

Speaking about the latest developments in South Sudan during his visit to Nairobi in August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “We believe that people of Africa have all the wisdom and capability to solve their issues,” adding that China’s role will be to continue participating in the peaceful settlement of regional issues, even in a more active way.

The hope of this peaceful settlement and its subsequent process in South Sudan was midwifed by a regional bloc known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Its Executive Secretary Mahboub Maalim recently spoke of a “new strategy” to bring lasting peace in Juba, the nation’s capital.

“We have told both sides that fighting has to stop. That is the immediate demand, but we may go for targeted sanctions to enforce it,” he said in Nairobi in August. “At IGAD we have been clear. That is why we have asked the UN to fortify the peacekeeping forces so they can provide security to civilians. Security is the first thing we must all strive to get. The rest will fall in place.”

IGAD is wary of recent fighting because it oversaw seven previous ceasefires between December 2013 and August 2015, all of which were broken within days.

Permanent ceasefire

As part of the peace process, IGAD also formed the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), composed of parties to the agreement, IGAD, the UN, and other international partners such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom and Norway.

JMEC is chaired by former Botswana President Festus Mogae and its role is to monitor violations and report them to the African Union and UN.

“The lack of political will and good leadership from the principals to implement the spirit and letter of the agreement is the greatest weakness that needs to be addressed,” said Dr. James Okuk, a South Sudanese scholar who teaches Comparative Politics at Juba University.

South Sudanese refugees have their information registered

South Sudanese refugees wait to get water“The JMEC needs to start practicing its 10 powers in Chapter VII of the peace agreement more assertively. Chapter II on Permanent Ceasefire and Security Arrangements need to be prioritized and reinforced fully,” he said referring to the provision on monitoring the implementation of the agreement requiring all armed groups to relocate troops out of Juba and cease fighting.

Violent events in July forced IGAD to recommend changing the mandate of the 14,000 UN peacekeeping forces already in South Sudan so they can have the power to protect civilians, over and above their peacekeeping role. The mandate change was endorsed by the AU and awaits approval from the UN Security Council.

The 4,000 additional troops mandated by the UN in August will be known as the Protection Force Brigade and will be drawn mostly from neighboring countries, something regional leaders had argued was missing. However, South Sudan said it would only accept such troops if they were independent and not under UN command, prompting the UN to consider imposing an embargo if deployment is obstructed.

Building trust

Throughout the ongoing conflict and peace process, IGAD has struggled to build trust among the parties involved. At a session in Nairobi in July, the bloc said it will work with South Sudan only as one entity.

“We are only engaging with South Sudan as one government composed of parties to the conflict. It is important that we remind spoilers of the need to support peace,” said Maalim. The parties he spoke about included political parties, religious groups and armed groups, which Maalim said must be part of the peace process for it to endure.

The necessity of being inclusive and taking own-ership was echoed by Oliver Michael, a consultant with the Interchurch Organization for Development Cooperation, a relief agency that works in South Sudan. “The fighting in South Sudan has been between South Sudanese people. They must be the first people to understand they need peace even without any external pressure,” he said.

“They must accept that they need one another in one country, accept responsibility and allow outsiders to only support their vision for a peaceful country,” said Michael.

Implementing agreement

The scope of the devastation in South Sudan is overwhelming. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said up to 5.1 million people in the country need humanitarian assistance. But only half of them could be accessed partly because of security concerns.

When violence broke out in July, some experts had predicted the peace agreement was faulty and would not last. Steve Paterno, author and researcher on the South Sudan conflict, told ChinAfrica the peace deal had been made “impractical” by signatories.

“The transitional government was meant to be a temporary measure. But I am afraid some groups may splinter if they feel locked out,” he warned.

But despite the challenges, Machar and Kiir have at least agreed on the number of advisors each should have in the government, an initially contentious issue.

“Sometimes people may want to do things at their own pace. Once the ceasefire is guaranteed, the political system should be reformed by the South Sudanese themselves,” said Professor Macharia Munene, a commentator on regional affairs based in Kenya. CA