杂志汇中国与非洲

ComingFullCircle

作者:By Aggrey Mutambo

We need to get ourselves out of these bad headlines and have our people sit back and not worry about violence. It is something everyone hopes for in 2016.

James Morgan, South Sudan’s Deputy Ambassador to Kenya

Though a new government is delayed, the peace pact still holds hope for embattled South Sudan

By Aggrey Mutambo

Ironically, the war in South Sudan that pitted forces loyal to President Salva Kiir against those allied to former First Vice President Riek Machar now sees the very men who initiated the conflict taking on the responsibility to return the country to peace.

South Sudan’s war was ignited in December 2013 after Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup. What followed was a violent period of tit-for-tat measures that left thousands dead, millions displaced and divided the world’s youngest nation along ethnic lines.

In January 2016, President Kiir agreed to appoint nominees from the groups that had fought his government in a move that signaled the start of a transitional government. All sides will share cabinet posts in the new government for about 30 months.

Though the interim government had not been set up by February, still analysts say the announcement alone signaled, for the first time, a willingness to end the war.

“The transitional government is basically to accommodate politicians who lost their positions in the government and decided to rebel to gain back their former positions,” Steve Paterno, a researcher on conflicts in Sudan, told ChinAfrica.

Paterno said the country became dangerous for civilians only when the politicians disagreed with one another, meaning the transitional government could signal a welcome peace period.

“There has never been a major security incident in South Sudan. Minor security incidents persist in the Greater Equatoria region, but [they are perpetrated by] bandits, which should not be confused with [a] rebellion,” he added, referring to one of the regions in central South Sudan.
 
Humanitarian disaster

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says since December 2013, the conflict has displaced more than 2.3 million people in South Sudan. Of these, 1.69 million were displaced internally and over 648,000 are refugees in neighboring countries like Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

The International Crisis Group estimates that 50,000 to 100,000 people across South Sudan were killed between December 2013 and November 2014. The number has increased as fighting continued in 2015.

The African Union Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan, chaired by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, reported accounts of tribal warfare, cannibalism and crimes against humanity.

“The commission heard of some captured people being forced to eat human flesh or forced to drink human blood… Both sides to the conflict have violated human rights. Alleged perpetrators include soldiers, militia, rebels and civilians,” the commission said in its report.

“Serious violations of international humanitarian law amounting to war crimes have been committed by both warring parties. In the commission’s view, the context in which these violations and crimes were committed is a non-international armed conflict involving governmental (and allied) forces and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition (and allied) fighters.”

During the conflict the adversaries signed seven ceasefire agreements. They broke all of them, returning to violence. The threat to regional security and cost of war pushed the international community to urge the parties to continue talking.
 
Costly war

The cost of the conflict has risen to astronomical proportions. One example is the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), which has 12,500 military personnel, 1,323 civilian police personnel and 769 civilian staff meant to provide humanitarian service to the displaced. Sustaining this large group requires at least $1.1 billion a year, according to budget statements on the UNMISS website.

A report, South Sudan: the Cost of War, An Estimation of the Economic and Financial Costs of Ongoing Conflict, compiled by European economic consultancy Frontier Economics, the Center for Peace and Development Studies at South Sudan’s University of Juba, and Uganda’s Center for Conflict Resolution, put the cost of war at $1.8 billion in lost opportunities by 2015. It warned the figure could rise to $7.7 billion by 2020 if the conflict didn’t stop.

There are strong signs, however, that the conflict will be over before 2020. The agreement on the transitional government, for example, was midwifed by the East African regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), whose members are Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda.


President Salva Kiir Mayar (L) Riek Machar (R), reappointed first vice president on February 11

“We have an obligation not to allow South Sudan to collapse. That is why we and our partners have been making every effort to ensure the parties can discuss the issues,” IGAD Executive Secretary Mahboub Maalim told ChinAfrica. “But it is up to the people of South Sudan to [build up] their country. We have always told the leaders that we would support them as long as they do what is good for their people.”

The peace talks, held in Addis Ababa, were largely financed and supported by international powers, including IGAD partners China, Norway, the United States, and the United Kingdom, as a step toward long-term stability.

China has said it will maintain communication and coordination with all sides and continue to play a constructive role in promoting the peace process. “China appreciated the efforts made by the IGAD and other parties, and hopes the conflicting sides in South Sudan can implement the agreement with concrete actions, improve the humanitarian situation, start reconstruction and resume peace and stability,” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying said in a statement last year.

The 700 UN peacekeeping troops stationed in South Sudan last April is the first deployment of a Chinese infantry battalion on the continent.

General agreement

According to the Compromise Peace Agreement signed in August 2015, President Kiir’s party would have 53 percent of the cabinet posts, Machar’s side 33 percent, former detainees 7 percent, and other political parties the remaining 7 percent.

Both the government and Machar’s side say they are willing to support the proposal. “The appointment of members from the armed opposition by President Salva Kiir is in accordance with the power-sharing peace agreement. We already did our part by selecting them. We support his decision to appoint them,” James Gatdet Dak, spokesperson for Riek Machar, said.

South Sudan’s Deputy Ambassador to Kenya, James Morgan, was also optimistic and called for an end to the violence.

“We need to get ourselves out of these bad headlines and have our people sit back and not worry about violence. It is something everyone hopes for in 2016,” he told the media in January.
 
Long road ahead

Experts warn though that the road to long-term peace is still bumpy as both sides continue to argue over whether to increase the number of states from 10 to 28. President Kiir has already appointed governors to 28 states.

“It has become a culture in South Sudan that rebellion against the system is rewarding toward the individuals involved. Whatever the leaders do should not be about rewarding individuals, but [in the] cause of the people,” Paterno said.

Meanwhile a positive sign of progress is that Machar said on February 13 that he has accepted his appointment by President Salva Kiir as the first vice president, as stipulated in the peace deal signed last year. The acceptance was welcomed by China, which has urged South Sudan to form a transitional government of unity as soon as possible to accelerate reconstruction in the country.

Both sides say the delay in creating the transitional government is because the constitution needs to be amended to provide for the interim structure.

Hope now lies in the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission, the body established by the IGAD to oversee the implementation of the peace agreement and mediate during differences. CA
 
(Reporting from Kenya)

 

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