杂志汇中国与非洲

It has never been clearer that even a small share of the colossal Chinese market could hold enormous sales potential, which now exists for the taking. The China International Import Expo (CIIE), to be held in November 2018, will be jointly hosted by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Shanghai Municipal Government, following an announcement by Chinese President, Xi Jinping, at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in 2017. The expo is of unprecedented significance for numerous reasons; foremost among these is that it is indicative of China’s commitment to playing an integral role in the continued integration of economies globally.

This event also shows that China is becoming a “proactive importer,” taking measures to make imports into China easier. Key drivers of the import growth are expected to be in agricultural products, automobiles, medicaments and consumer electronics.

The prospects that this growth represents have fundamentally driven huge interest in the CIIE. African businesses and governments must not only position themselves to take advantage of the expo, but also the explosive potential that China’s coming import boom holds.

The level of maturity among African businesses differs vastly across the continent, but a constant objective among most African countries, as embodied by AU’s Agenda 2063, is to industrialize the economies and transform the composition of exports from raw materials to more value-added goods. In the wake of decades of failed attempts to drive import substitution industrialization, export promotion, or export-led economic growth in “non-raw material” goods, is becoming more appealing. In order to actualize economic growth and development on this basis, African countries would need to prime local industries to be able to service global clientele and seek out other markets for African goods and services.

How can African countries take advantage of the CIIE and the broader trend it represents? First, be present. If businesses have a product or service to offer and are considering expansion to foreign markets, it is important that they are visible to Chinese buyers. Second, be strategic. This expo will be a recurring annual event, providing scope for greatly expanded market access. Businesses and governments must develop a strategy to harness this opportunity especially toward achieving national economic objectives. Third, be attentive. African players must aim to match their offerings with China’s key import growth sectors. Fourth, e-commerce is the word. The rapid migration to the use of online mediums in China necessitates a capacity to interact effectively with Chinese buyers on these platforms. Finally, this expo is an opportunity to demonstrate that African countries have world-class goods and services to offer, and that they can compete on the global stage.

1/Algeria April: Algeria’s first communications satellite, Alcomsat-1, was launched. It was designed and manufactured by the China Academy of Space Technology, and would be used for television broadcasting and remote education.

2/Ethiopia April: The Bahir Day Industrial Park, constructed by China Civil Engineering Construction Corp. and the Ethiopian Industrial Parks Development Corp., will be completed within three months. Worth $60 million, the industrial park project is expected to create about 20,000 jobs in Amhara Province.

3/Kenya May: Negotiations for the financing of the third phase of the Naivasha-Malaba standard gauge railway by the Export Import Bank of China have begun. The line, valued at $5.4 billion, is a part of the greater East African Community protocol, which will connect the cities of Nairobi, Naivasha, Malaba and the port of Mombasa. The second phase began in January.

4/DR Congo May: China National Chemical Engineering Group Co. Ltd. signed a raft of engineering contracts worth $3.05 billion with the Democratic Republic of Congo. These included contracts for the construction of highways, urban rail traffic systems, hospitals and a solid waste incineration power plant.

5/Nigeria May: China’s central bank and its Nigerian counterpart have signed a currency swap agreement enabling an exchange of 720 billion Naira for 15 billion yuan ($2.35 billion) over the next three years. This will facilitate bilateral trade and investment and promote the financial stability of both sides.

6/Ghana May: The Chinese Government is set to build a cocoa processing plant worth $60 million in Sefwi Wiawso, which is expected to have an annual processing capacity of 40,000 tons. The project will be facilitated by the Ghana Cocoa Board.

GDP Growth Remains Resilient

Despite the trend of a continued, gradual economic slowdown, China’s monthly GDP growth has consistently proved resilient, often outperforming expectations. The economy grew by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018, keeping steady with the last quarter of 2017. The figure came out slightly higher than the expected growth of 6.7 percent. The economic growth in last year’s quarter one was 6.9 percent. Leading contributors to the slightly contracting growth rates are a crackdown on polluting factories around China’s major cities, in addition to slowed growth in investments in fixed assets.

Indicators Signal Continued Expansion

China’s official purchasing managers’ index fell lower in April to 51.4 percent, down from 51.5 percent in March. It remains just below the 12-month moving average of 51.49 percent. The figure, however, beat analysts’ expectations by 20 basis points. The decline is attributed to slowed order delivery times and lowered raw material inventories. The producer price index inched up slightly to 103.4 in April, from 103.1 in March. The consumer price index, conversely, fell to 101.8, down from 102.1 in March. The Chinese yuan, however, remains relatively strong against the U.S. dollar, still hovering close to its 36-month high of 0.16.

Strong Import Growth Fuels Ambition

China’s monthly imports grew at 14.4 percent from the same period last year in March this year. Within the past year, China has seen double-digit increases in monthly import values over previous year values, and the trend is expected to continue. Talk of an ambitious increase in imports to China has captured international attention as preparations get underway for the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai. Set to take place in November of this year, the Expo hopes to emphasize several key industries in which it aims to achieve ambitious levels of annual import growth. Imports to China achieved an all-time high of $12.46 trillion last year, up 18.7 percent from 2016.

The ChinAfrica Econometer is produced by The Beijing Axis, an international advisory and procurement firm operating in four principal areas: Procurement, Sales Activation, Capital, and Strategy. For more information, please contact: Kobus van der Wath, [email protected], www.thebeijingaxis.com